The opposition’s fragmented contest in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections helped the BJP-Shinde Sena Mahayuti alliance turn even a narrow lead in vote share into a decisive advantage in seats under the first-past-the-post system, an analysis of vote share data by The Indian Express shows.
Under the first-past-the-post system, candidates do not need a majority to win. Even a narrow lead in absolute votes can be enough if the remainder is divided between the rivals.
While the gap in vote share between the ruling alliance and the main opposition parties (when counted as a bloc) was narrow in the recently concluded BMC elections, the difference in the number of seats won was significant.
The Shiv Sena (UBT), Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) together polled around 23.06 lakh votes, or 42.01% of the total votes cast, which was more than around 22.38 lakh votes, or rounding up to 41%, polled by the Mahayuti alliance.
While the ruling Mahayuti went into the BMC elections as a formal alliance with the BJP contesting 137 of the 227 wards and the Shiv Sena fighting for 90 seats, the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi adopted a contrasting strategy.
Despite being alliance partners, the Shiv Sena’s UBT and the Congress largely contested the elections independently, fielding candidates in a significantly larger number of constituencies, with 163 and 152 seats respectively.
However, the BJP-Shinde Sena combine won 118 of the 227 wards, crossing the halfway mark and securing control of India’s richest civic body, while the Sena (UBT), Congress, NCP-SP and MNS together won 96 wards.
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Across BombayAcross the 227 wards, a total of 54.64 lakh votes were collected.
The data also shows how vote splitting between opposition parties may have benefited the ruling alliance across the city.
While the BJP and the Shiv Sena typically faced a single main rival in each district, opposition votes were often split between two or three candidates, which could prove costly in contests decided by narrow margins.
In Dahisar West (ward 1), for example, the Shinde Sena candidate won with 7,544 votes. The Congress candidate got 5,070 votes, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate got 4,314. Together, the two opposition candidates obtained 9,384 votes (almost 1,900 more than the winner) but lost the war because they competed separately.
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The margin of victory was 2,474 votes. Similar patterns were seen across Mumbai.
How the games went
A comparison of vote figures from the 2017 and 2026 BMC elections shows that the BJP’s vote share increased only slightly. In 2017, the BJP polled 13.94 lakh votes, or 27.32 per cent of the total votes. In 2026, its vote count increased to 15.40 lakh votes, taking its share to 28.2 per cent, becoming the largest party. The increase was small, but the party was able to keep its supporters united.
In 2017, the BJP had contested almost all the Corporation seats and managed to get 27.32 per cent votes. This time he fought with 137 relatively fewer votes than the last time, but managed to consolidate his bases by obtaining 28.2 percent of the votes despite competing in many fewer electoral districts.
In 2017, the undivided Shiv Sena was the largest party, polling 14.43 lakh votes and securing 28.29 per cent of the votes. By 2026, the party had split. He Eknath Shinde The Shiv Sena-led party got 6.93 lakh votes, or 12.8 per cent, while the Shiv Sena UBT got 13.16 lakh votes, or 24.2 per cent.
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Together, the two Sena factions received around 20.1 lakh votes, which is around 4.3 lakh votes more than the undivided Shiv Sena had polled in 2017.
Congress also lost support. In 2017, it got 8.13 lakh votes, or 15.94 per cent. In 2026, its vote count fell to 6.26 lakh votes, reducing its share to 11.5 per cent.
The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena saw a minor decline. He polled 3.33 lakh votes in 2026, down from 3.94 lakh votes in 2017. His vote share fell from 7.73 per cent to 6.1 per cent.